How the Sports Betting Line is Made by RJ Bell

Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said. Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a “preliminary” pointspread on an upcoming game. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ┬Ż to try and attract money on the favorite. If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team’s most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent.

RJ Bell

┬ęPregame.com 2006

Website: http://www.Pregame.com

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action. . People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not.”

Moving the line is the oddsmaker’s effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision.

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays.

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines.

Why the Line Changes

How the Opening Line Is Made

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the betting action, public perception and betting patterns must be taken into account. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an “adjusted line.”

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

What Is the Line Trying to Accomplish?

Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line “feels right.” This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf).

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by.

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team’s power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Contributed by:

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action.

Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’). For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football team such as USC

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How To Get Rich on Habbo Hotel

This will give you a positive reputation, and they’ll likely bet it again and lose it anyway.

Step 5

These coins will be traded among

various Habbos until one of them ultimately decides to

gamble

them. For

instance, in a game with 10% dealer

advantage, for every 10 coins bet, the dealer

can expect to profit

1 coin. There’s bound to be something.

Step 9

Good places to find

friends are in various games and reality shows.

As a dealer, it’s important not to offer deals that are so large they take away your dealers’ advantage. Getting to

know them can lead to them betting you, or at

least filling a casino you deal in

and making you appear friendly

and approachable.

Conclusion

Tips & Warnings

Check bobbavalues.com if you need a

price check on a rare you come across.

Realize that the Habbo

economy is dominated by gambling.

Wealth is localized in

Habbo in quite a regular fashion. In most cases, the casino wins when gambling. In addition

to most games and their

conditions leading the dealer to an

advantage, you will likely get scammed,

reducing your total

payback even more.

Grow your friend network

It

is important not to coop yourself up in the casino the whole time as

you are

trying to gain profit. This path is by no

means quick and easy, so do not expect instant results.. Save up your coins

until you have enough to buy rights PLUS about 50 coins to start

dealing.

Step 6

Buy rights from a popular

casino

Your money will simply not be well spent unless

you buy rights from a popular

casino.

Bear

in mind that the dealer advantage is over the long run. Sometimes these gifts would be rares (right on!),

but

typically I got various norms. I’m guessing you have one of those.Step 1

I also recommend playing the many games

that are hosted, but never pay the owner furni. There

will be plenty

of winning/losing streaks along the way, and your

total bankroll over time will be

a rollercoaster. (The Habbo Club sofa used to be the common

unit of exchange in the market. This formula was made to show

gamblers (if the odds are in their favor) how much they should bet

for maximum growth with minimum risk. If a player claims to lose all their furni, I recommend giving them one of their bets back. For example, I

would be more apt to bet someone named

Blue than XxSweetie_012xX.

Whip out a dictionary and look up some words that have

not been

taken yet. However, with the birth of the

marketplace, coins are now typically used.)

This how-to guide will give you the

tools needed to become rich on Habbo Hotel. It’s best to expect

that the owner is a scammer, and you can’t get scammed if you don’t

give him or her anything.

Step 3

Get your first month of

Habbo Club.

Habbo Hotel is dominated by teenagers, and

teenagers are superficial. (See

my page for details on dealer advantage.) But, in order to get a

good start on your dealing (as we will discuss later), you will

probably want to start with 50 coins (known as a “gb” for

gold bar).

DO mooch more furni and

coins and trade up

How I got my starting capital (several

times, mind you) was by making rich friends

and getting gifts from

them. It is clear that the richest of the rich on Habbo

did

not attain their wealth from buying coins, considering that spending

$100 on

coins will get you only 10

gold bars. You need rights in a casino that is regularly on the top

of

the list.

Step 2

Select a good username.

Many

Habbos try to get bets in casinos, but fail to do so and wonder why.

Gamblers

with experience inherently trust more aged users, and an

indicator of age is the

uniqueness of a username. The trick is to open a coin shop and

sell LOW.

You’re not looking to make big money here; just enough

to get started with your

gambling enterprise.

Step 8

Bet big = FAIL

According

to The Wizard

of Odds, the amount you should optimally be dealing for each hand

is determined by the Kelly criterion. Never bet higher than the Kelly criterion

would have you,

and remember to put all that furni you earn to good use!

Habbo

Hotel is a massively multiplayer online game where players create

virtual

avatars to visit various hotel rooms, participate in

activities, and personalize

their own page. Many people

who

attend these have a decent reputation on the hotel and many

friends. You may get discounts

(or

even free) rights other casinos. If you can’t, let the Kelly

amount be

your booth’s maximum bet.

Things You Will NeedAll you’ll need is a computer with a working Internet connection. To the typical Habbo

player, it can be daunting to see how wealthy

some of the elite

players are. This translates into the pixel world.

You’re going to need Habbo Club to appear presentable and to be taken

seriously by the community (no one likes being called a bacon). Doing so

will grow your

reputation and give you more people to bet. Although dealing under the Kelly bet will

slow your

growth, it is certainly better to deal under than

over.

Thus, you should regularly check

your bankroll and see what the optimal Kelly bet

is,

and try to get bets that are that big. As your reputation

grows, it may be tempting to do

super rare bets that you cannot

afford. As you get

rich enough,

consider the prospect of opening your own casino! You can sell

rights

and establish yourself more formally as a well-known dealer

on Habbo Hotel.

Remember to deal responsibly. In

order to

grow your wealth, you need to play games with a dealer advantage, such as 6, 13, 21, and pick-a-number.

The

dealer advantage is defined as the percent profit the dealer

makes on each bet. If

you’d like to get this right away, simply buy a few coins (you could

get 20 via text message for $4), or, if you’re a die-hard for not

spending any money, play games and make friends, get some normal

furni, and sell them for coins (described in-depth in step 5). Using Habbo Hotel as a

friend-making service (as it was

intended) is one of the most

profitable moves you can make as a dealer. It begins with a new

player

deciding to buy coins. Here

are some tips for Habbo Club members:

Do not overdress. Thus, it is

important to apportion bets appropriately to allow for

this

long-term growth, as discussed in the next step.

With all these techniques, you should

see a steady growth of your purse. If these coins

are wagered enough times, the casino will eventually own all of them.

Thus, the split between rich and poor grows.

Step 4

DO NOT BET YOUR FREE HC

GIFT

Betting in Habbo is typically a no-no. I have posted

a Kelly

calculator for Habbo games here.

Dealing over the Kelly bet will make you more likely to lose it all

without any added benefit. The

approximate dealer advantage of each game,

determined

by simulation, is found here, the higher the better. It’s ok to shop around for a

good deal on rights, but don’t suffice for a

middle-of-the-list

casino. A

myriad of bling and headdresses is bound to scare

patrons away

from your booth.

Do not wear badges except the one for the

casino’s dealer group.

Doing this will also get you your first

HC gift.

Step 7

Deal ONLY games that are, eventually,

guaranteed to make you rich.

Poker and multi have a 0%

dealer advantage, and are thus horrible games to deal. Getting to know others on Habbo is

essential

to making coins