Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.
Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team’s most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).
Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations.
The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line “feels right.” This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.
A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks.
How the Opening Line Is Made
The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides.
What Is the Line Trying to Accomplish?
For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.
Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game
There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by.
Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10). People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not.”
Moving the line is the oddsmaker’s effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team’s power rating are key player injuries and player trades.
Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)
The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an “adjusted line.”
. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach.
Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time.
Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”
Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a “preliminary” pointspread on an upcoming game.
Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the betting action, public perception and betting patterns must be taken into account. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action.
“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football team such as USC. Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Reasons for such adjustments include:
“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said.
“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf)
So I found out, prison, insanity and, or death is real. While in jail, I was sent for a psychiatric assesment where I was diagnosed with a borderline personality disorder, a form of neurosis. I spent three months in the Remand Centre, and I was given a two years conditional sentence, during its duration I had to stay with my family or go back to jail. The sentence was light probably because I didn’t have a gun or any other weapon of any sort. Sometimes I think that If I was run over by a semi and my son walked in front of me, I would then pull myself together and walk.. I joined a pentecostal church, and I attended service every Sunday. I was also sent to Gambler’s Anonimous and I was allowed to attend 1 meeting per week. Amazing, in spite of the consequences, I still suffered serious gambling urges until I went through step 4 and 5 for the second time. Following the first year of my sentence, I was allowed to return to school, and I took an Office Assistance program. I actually finished the program and got a 1 year certificate. I recently celebrated my seven year birthday in G.A. When I came out of jail, I had justifiably lost custody of my twelve year old son, and all I owned were a couple of sets of clothes. For the first six months, I was under house arrest so, I was not allowed to work. I have had a number of addictions. Food and exercise addictions made me miserable for a time, but gambling swept me off my feet. I started with slot machines and after three months I was gambling away my rent money, and I was unable to stop. At the end of the ten years, I had quit University, quit a job because I couldn’t handle cash, lost a few cars, started two abusive relationship because I was afraid of being alone, attempted suicide twice and failed. At the end, I was arrested and charged for 1 armed robbery and 1 attempted. He gave me Paxil, and the only improvement was that I didn’t care how much money I lost. In ten years, I went to Gamblers Anonimous twice but, looking back I wasn’t ready to do what the program asked of me. I never regained custody of my son, but I have seen him almost every week-end since my release from jail. Him and I have a wonderful relationship and I thank God everyday for letting him be in my life. The change in my life happened because once I was done destroying myself and everything around me, my son said he still loved me. I guess because my illness, I felt that I had to test him. I went to see a psychiatrist, following my brother’s advice. And now, at the age of nineteen, my son says that what he admires about me is that I never give up. I was also ordered to attend counselling which I did once per week
Lange: First thing’s first: Can Buffalo hang on to the basketball and rebound on the defensive end? No team in the MAC comes close to resembling West Virginia’s chaotic ways. 10 Indiana Hoosiers
ATS pick: Lafayette +23*
No. 15 New Mexico St Aggies
Best and worst coaches to bet on
Cincinnati plus-1 vs. If you’re playing any other team and don’t want to parlay game to game (maybe you’re betting in Vegas and won’t be back after the opening weekend), bet the odds to win the regional (see below) instead of the odds to win the whole thing. 16 North Florida/Robert Morris
ATS pick: Eastern Washington +7.5*
Tuley: As we’ve all seen over the years, when an underdog is live during March Madness, they often pull the outright upset instead of just covering. Michigan State
9. With public support shifting, we theorized that there would be value fading these so-called “trendy underdogs.”
Our theory posits that when an underdog pulls off an unlikely upset, square bettors have difficulty accepting the team’s new role as a favorite. North Carolina has every possible edge, but the Tar Heels don’t always show up, and they were just 14-13-1 ATS before finishing the season 5-2 ATS. For all of Texas’ length and size, the Longhorns were a solid, but hardly impressive plus-3.9 rebounds per game vs. 9 Purdue Boilermakers
Lange: Arguably the best attribute to have with a double-digit underdog in the NCAA tournament is high-caliber shooters, and on paper, Northeastern has just that. 8 Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Wyoming made a nice run through the Mountain West Conference to steal a bid, but Northern Iowa has moved beyond that “Cinderella” category into a team that wouldn’t be a shock if it made the Sweet 16 (in fact, an argument could be made that the Panthers should be the No. The WAC was one of the slowest conferences in the country, with the “fastest” team averaging 61.6 possessions per game in league play. No. Georgia was on the bubble and secured its spot in the field by beating South Carolina in the SEC tournament, then sat second-leading scorer Kenny Gaines in the next game against Arkansas. The issue is that Northeastern hasn’t faced an offense even remotely close to that of the Irish. The Bulldogs have more than enough talent to hang with Duke and Kentucky.
Tuley: Every year, there are a few teams that get snubbed or a few teams that get overseeded or underseeded and cause heated discussions. Neither team will shy away from the transition game, but the opportunities will be limited, especially for Purdue as the Bearcats boast one of the best transition defenses I’ve seen this season. I’m not buying this one. underachiever (Texas). 4 Louisville Cardinals vs. This is a long-winded way of saying that the committee put VCU in at a No. 5 West Virginia Mountaineers vs. However, the Wildcats are only 2-3 ATS when laying 20 points or more, so this seems to be the tipping point. 4 North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Austin
With more than 9.2 quintillion possible NCAA tournament brackets, it’s easy to feel overwhelmed. Oftentimes, those “snubbed” teams go on to lose right away in the NIT and the “overseeded” teams live up to their billing, while “underseeded” teams put in disappointing showings. 6 SMU Mustangs vs. And I like the public dog, too. 10 Davidson Wildcats
The table below summarizes the results of our analysis.
ATS pick: Oklahoma -12*
Westgate line: Ohio St. 15 Belmont Bruins
The second is specific to this NCAA tournament, with such a huge favorite in Kentucky. Mary’s, Baylor and Colorado State (average loss: 8.8 PPG). The Cowboys lost their previous game against Oklahoma and opened as a 1-point favorite against Oregon. The Bulldogs obviously missed him on both ends of the floor, and it probably kept them from winning that game and finishing second in the league tourney to Kentucky. No. No. The Great Danes lost 64-60 to Providence and 75-59 to UNLV. Spartans vs. Villanova
Belmont plus-16 vs. 4 Georgetown Hoyas vs. 10 Georgia Bulldogs
Tuley: This line climbed from UNC minus-9 to minus-10, and I liked it more and more — until it got bet back to 8.5. minus-6 vs. Offensive rebounding and garbage points are musts for Butler, because Texas is a fairly strong defensive team in the half court. 4 seed, though it’s a moot point since they’re on a collision course with Louisville regardless).
Tuley: This line has risen from 4.5 to 5.5 since wagering opened Sunday night, which isn’t too surprising as everyone knows how MSU coach Tom Izzo gets his teams to improve as the season progresses (and we all saw how the Spartans took Wisconsin to OT in the Big Ten title game). 2 offensive team in the nation.
During the regular season, a majority of public bettors take the underdog in just 17.65 percent of games; that figure reaches 23.82 percent for the NCAA tournament. Some will say the Shockers are being punished for losing to Illinois State in the Missouri Valley semifinals. The Bulldogs held a plus-7.3 rebounds-per-game edge in Big East play — 3.9 rebounds per game better than second-best Providence. Statistically, the Bulls are fairly sound in the turnover department (15.2 percent vs. The Utes are underseeded by most respected metrics, and the committee didn’t do them any favors matching them up against a tough Stephen F. The Mountaineers’ success in the “first meetings” in Big 12 play (6-3 SU/ATS) suggests we look their way.
The 10 teams, according to Kornegay, lead bookmaker at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, and his staff, that are the most popular teams to wager on as the tourney begins.
No. 2 Virginia Cavaliers vs. No. No. 3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. No. Michigan St. Duke
7. With so few past system picks on the third tier of this system, it’s no surprise that there are no current game matches for the opening-round games. Belmont is probably most known for nearly beating No. 14 UAB Blazers
ATS pick: Cincinnati -1
Tuley: I have two things to say about betting futures.
No. This is the best and most balanced Gonzaga team yet, playing in its backyard, so I can’t get on the NDSU bandwagon.
Westgate line: Wichita State -6
PickCenter consensus pick: 55 percent picked Wichita St. MAC opponents), but struggled to keep opposing teams off the glass. No. 13 Eastern Washington Eagles
Wunderdog: You know what you’re going to get out of Oklahoma. Texas Southern comes in with 11 straight wins and covered the first two games in the SWAC tourney before winning but failing to cover in the title game, though that was a weird case (their opponent, Southern, was put on probation so the Tigers were going to be going dancing regardless of the outcome). A year ago at this time they played American in the opening game and won 75-35, allowing only 29 percent shooting.
Lange: From a betting perspective, the Terrapins went from underrated heading into Big Ten play (4-2 ATS start) to overrated after sweeping Michigan State (which went on a 1-8 ATS slide), and then back to underrated following six straight covers heading into the Big Dance. 12 Wyoming Cowboys
Westgate line: Iowa St. Indiana is a smoke-and-mirrors team that beat up on the weak and shot its way to wins at home — not a recipe for postseason success. 1 Villanova Wildcats vs. Purdue
Notre Dame minus-12 vs. The oddsmakers certainly think so, as they made Ohio State the favorite despite the seedings. No. Wisconsin is 4-0-1 ATS in its past five NCAA tournament games. I don’t see any potential matchup where I’ll be fading them, starting with the opener, as UAB needed the home court to win the Conference USA tournament as the fourth seed to earn its dance ticket. Albany is on an 0-5 ATS run and will get stomped by the talented and well-coached Sooners.
Westgate line: Georgetown -7.5
PickCenter consensus pick: 73 percent picked Eastern Washington
No. The Wolfpack are a tough matchup for a lot of teams with their three-guard attack of 6-3 junior Trevor Lacey (15.8 PPG, 4.4 RPG), 6-5 senior Ralston Turner (13.2 PPG) and sophomore Anthony Barber (12 PPG). For short-priced dogs, I might just bet only the money line with Davidson plus-120 over Iowa, VCU plus-145 over Ohio State or UCLA plus-150 over SMU, as I’m basically picking them because I believe they will win.
No. No. 4 Maryland Terrapins vs. Cincinnati chews up tons of clock trying to get the ball in the paint to Octavius Ellis. -4.5
PickCenter consensus pick: 70 percent picked Michigan St. No. The Tigers turned it over 17 times to Auburn’s attacking guards, and this is an equally tough backcourt matchup.
2. Tyler Kalinoski was the Atlantic 10 Player of the Year, but he’s far from the lone gunman as Davidson averages more than 10 3-pointers made (hitting at better than 40 percent from long range) and more than 80 points per game. While bettors overwhelmingly tend to take the favorite during the regular season, the NCAA tournament is a rare time when the public jumps all over the underdog.
Tuley: This game is a contrast in styles, as St. 1 Kentucky Wildcats vs. 12 Wofford Terriers
Tuley: Villanova is for real, and hard to bet against at 24-9 ATS. 7 VCU Rams vs. 16 Hampton/Manhattan winner
Wunderdog: Defense is key in March and Oklahoma State has it, as the Cowboys finished fourth in the Big 12 in points allowed, and fifth in field goal shooting percentage allowed this season. Since Butler left in 2011, the last three Big Dance participants from the Horizon lost by margins of 15, 11 and 20 in the first round.
1. 12 Stephen F. Georgetown
UCLA plus-2 vs. No. Bison
No. This is one of those instances, and it provides a very strong favorite laying a very reasonable price.
No. No. 13 Valparaiso Crusaders
Tuley: Here’s another 5-12 matchup, with the public looking to the underdog to pull an upset. But for the Aggies, it’s really all we have to go off considering they haven’t played anyone even remotely capable since beating UC Irvine at home in early January.
Tuley: This isn’t like one of the Louisville teams we’ve grown accustomed to seeing in recent years, and they look fade-able, but it looks like the committee did the Cardinals a favor with this seeding and matchup. No. They have great balance, with a strong frontcourt, while 6-4 junior Buddy Hield (17.5 PPG, 5 RPG) and 6-4 junior Isaiah Cousins (12.2 PPG, 5 RPG) run the backcourt and lead the team in scoring. If anyone asks if I think my dog has a chance to win outright, I’m going to say, “Of course!” On most of my plays, I’ll add a little something on the money line. Now, it’s a sliding scale. 13 Harvard Crimson
No. 8 San Diego St. 16 Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
To be added after the Hampton/Manhattan “First Four” game on Tuesday in Dayton, Ohio.
As the spreads get higher, the points are more likely to come into play and I’ll bet a smaller percentage on the money line: Georgia plus-210 over Michigan State and Eastern Washington plus-280 over Georgetown. LSU
To be added after the North Florida-Robert Morris “First Four” game on Wednesday in Dayton, Ohio.
Tuley: UCLA’s inclusion by the selection committee was the most vilified decision on Selection Sunday (especially when the Bruins were given a No.
ATS pick: Stephen F. Utah can play with anybody sans Kentucky in this field.
Enjoy and good luck.
ATS picks for every game
No. It’s that lack of depth that has me looking to play against them in the next round, but not in this one.
ATS pick: Iowa St. No. Arkansas won 10 of its last 13 games, and two of those losses were to Kentucky. If bettors are willing to take a 12-seed over a 5-seed straight up, it makes sense that they would also be willing to bet the 12-seed getting points.
No. Cyclones vs. ACC opponents). 14 Northeastern Huskies
ATS pick: Arkansas -6.5
Tuley: I don’t expect Texas Southern to give Arizona too much of a scare as they’re overmatched talent-wise and don’t have a superstar or even a true big man. However, we do have a Tier 2 match on Oklahoma State. minus-1 vs. Gonzaga
8. If Harvard can dictate the pace, the experienced Crimson could pull another upset or at least keep this within the spread.
This is a high total — the third highest on the board in the opening round. When facing a winning team this season, UCLA was 17-6 hitting the under. 13 UC Irvine Anteaters
Westgate line: Duke -TBD
PickCenter consensus pick: TBD
ATS pick: West Virginia -4.5
Bettors can also use the public betting trends available on ESPN Chalk’s Live Odds page to track favorites receiving less than 50 percent of spread bets.
Teams I would consider: Iowa State at 9-2 to win the South and Baylor at 10-1 to win the West.
Fading the trendy underdog
Tuley: I liked Iowa State last year and was bummed when the Cyclones ran into another hot team that I was in love with (UConn) in the Sweet 16. I will have some on Harvard plus-525 over North Carolina and Belmont plus-1200 over Virginia, but I’ll probably pass on Texas Southern and Lafayette at plus-2500 apiece over Arizona and Villanova.
Jay Kornegay’s top public teams
No. Besides, a lot of people think the Hoyas are overseeded; in fact, the BPI had them as a No. Coach Lon Kruger is outstanding, knowing how to get his team focused and prepared, and he’s very strong at in-game adjustments. We all know the Harvard kids are smart, but Crimson have also won opening-round games each of the past two years. Villanova obviously has the talent edge, but it’s not a size mismatch like we usually see with 1-16 matchups. To eliminate these teams, we focused solely on teams that won their previous game. But except for Lawrence Alexander, NDSU is far inferior to the team that nearly made the Sweet 16 last year, and frankly, it wouldn’t be in the field if it hadn’t won the Summit Conference tournament. It took time, but Maryland’s offense looked improved the back half of the campaign. 1 Wisconsin Badgers vs. 9 LSU Tigers
Using Sport Insights’ Bet Labs software, we found that tournament favorites that receive less than 50 percent of spread bets have gone 86-65 ATS (+16.24 units won, 10.8 percent ROI) over the past 10 years. No. Virginia
Georgia plus-4.5 vs. When this team was also an underdog in its previous game, the number of past matches is reduced dramatically, but we’re left with a 27-11 ATS record (+14.5 units, 38.2 percent ROI).
Championship title odds
Best title value bets
ATS pick: Louisville -9
Tuley: I’m conflicted on this game. 5 Arkansas Razorbacks vs. The Badgers come into the tourney fresh off a Big Ten title, winning every game by double digits. They challenged themselves in nonleague play with games at Wichita State, Wyoming, St. Lafayette did play at Villanova in last season’s opener and was tied with eight minutes to play before losing by 16 points (75-59). The Zags just won the West Coast Conference by winning two games 79-61 and 91-75. Furthermore, they’re playing their best basketball of the season right now, winning the Atlantic 10 title, and they will be taking on a turnover-prone Buckeyes team.
No. The team was 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS in their absence. 5 Utah Utes vs. 16 Lafayette Leopards
Tuley: Gonzaga is hardly even considered a mid-major anymore; instead, it’s the poster child for programs like North Dakota State, which upset Oklahoma last year in the Seattle subregional. 11 UCLA Bruins
Most profitable tournament coaches since 2005
6. 10 when a lot of people would argue those should be switched. 14 Georgia St Panthers
Westgate line: Utah -6
PickCenter consensus pick: 59 percent picked Stephen F. No. Northeastern
Wichita St. John’s will likely stick with its four-guard lineup and push the pace while San Diego State will try to slow it down and control the game with its huge front line — especially compared to SJU with just 6-foot-6 Sir’Dominic Pointer to match up with 6-10 Skylar Spencer, 6-8 Winston Shepard and 6-7 J.J. John’s Red Storm
No. 11 seed and pretty far removed from the bubble). He will not get outcoached. We’ve asked our experienced group of wiseguys, including Dave Tuley, Andrew Lange, Dave Solar, Geoff Kulesa of Wunderdog Sports and Sal Selvaggio what they’re looking at when handicapping the bracket and picking tourney games.
I think it’s important not to punish NMSU too much for its conference affiliation, as the program recruits well and has been on solid footing throughout the Marvin Menzies era. Stephen F. 6 Xavier Musketeers vs. 3 Oklahoma Sooners vs. Everyone is buying into the hype of the nation’s leading scorer, Tyler Harvey (22.9 PPG), and that the Eagles get to play in their home state while Georgetown has to travel all the way across the country from the “other” Washington. This addition leads to a 12-2 ATS record with +9.45 units won and a 67.5 percent ROI.
To be added after the BYU-Mississippi “First Four” game on Tuesday in Dayton, Ohio.
In last week’s conference tournament betting guide, we detailed a system that focuses on large underdogs in low-scoring games, and explained how public betting patterns change during the postseason. Below is a list of the best and worst coaches to bet on in the NCAA tourney this year and their corresponding ATS tourney records.
More money hits the market during the NCAA tournament than any other time in the sports betting calendar. Not one I’m going to overthink here, as Butler is worth a play as an underdog, preferably at plus-2.
No. Aztecs vs. Northern Iowa
ATS pick: Maryland -4
No. SEC Player of the Year Bobby Portis (yes, he won over all those Kentucky blue-chippers) and his teammates love to run, and I just don’t see Wofford keeping pace.
To summarize our handicappers’ best bets (lines are from the Westgate SuperBook as of Tuesday morning):
To be added after the Boise State-Dayton “First Four” game on Wednesday in Dayton, Ohio.
Westgate line: Xavier -TBD
PickCenter consensus pick: TBD
Lange: How is either team going to score? Both squads are tremendous at packing the paint, contesting shots and rebounding. The Terrapins rely an awful lot on Dez Wells and Melo Trimble, and I would expect Valpo to play some zone. It’s a veteran team, too. 3 Baylor Bears vs. Austin team in the first round, but the Utes play a very good brand of basketball that fits the tournament setting. They also have a tremendous amount of size, with a frontcourt that features players standing 7-3, 6-10, 6-9 and 6-8. No. WVU’s Juwan Staten (knee) and Gary Browne (ankle) are still nursing injuries, but expected to play. 5 Northern Iowa Panthers vs. 11 Boise St./Dayton winner
Wunderdog: Wisconsin got off to a great start this season and hasn’t slowed down. The same can be said for Purdue’s two 7-footers, Isaac Haas and A.J. Coastal Carolina
ATS pick: Northern Iowa -7.5
Below are the ATS records for every NCAA tournament team this season, along with each team’s SU record and average margin of cover.
Lange: It’s the time of year when identifying the better defensive team in a short-lined game puts you in solid position to cash tickets. No. The Ducks allowed 54.5 percent shooting the last game, an 80-52 loss to Arizona, and are 2-6 ATS following a loss of more than 20 points.
Note: Picks marked with an asterisk (*) are best bets. No. No. 2 Duke in 2008, but this year’s team was 25th in the nation from the floor at 47.6 percent, and won its last seven games, including an upset of Murray State to steal the OVC’s automatic bid. Albany
NC State minus-1 vs. The state of college basketball — slower, and lower scoring — makes it so “superior” teams aren’t always asked to cover big numbers. Another thing working for the underdog is that Lafayette coach Fran O’Hanlon is a Nova alumnus and there’s a chance the Wildcats won’t want to embarrass O’Hanlon by running up the score.
ATS pick: Wisconsin -18*
Westgate line: West Virginia -4.5
PickCenter consensus pick: 52 percent picked West Virginia
Wisconsin minus-18 vs. As much as I and most bettors despise Rick Barnes, it’s important to recognize that the Longhorns have the better personnel in this matchup. As a team, the Huskies shoot 52.9 percent from 2, 38.8 percent from 3 and 72.4 percent from the free throw line. 7 Michigan St. All that stuff aside, we can only handicap the games in front of us, and while SMU is a solid team, I am convinced that if UCLA plays like it did against Arizona in the Pac-12 semifinals, the Bruins will be able to pull the upset here.
ATS pick: Harvard +8.5*
ATS pick: San Diego St. 8 NC State Wolfpack vs. No. 15 North Dakota St. 2 Arizona Wildcats vs. However, I’m really high on Utah with its inside-outside tandem of guard Delon Wright and 7-foot center Jakob Poeltl, and this number looks a little short (again, because of the support for SFA as an ever-popular No. Iowa
Lafayette plus-23 vs. They have a similar profile to the Mountaineers with poor outside shooting (31.9 percent 3-pointers) but the ability to hit the offensive boards (36.5 percent). But fear not: ESPN’s Chalk college basketball betting experts are here to help. No. In nonconference play, a number of NMSU’s games were in the high 60s to low 70s, possession-wise. They’ve lost two games all year: an OT loss at Arizona and a 3-point loss to BYU, the No. Kansas is at its best in transition, and I would expect it to push the pace and pull New Mexico State along.
Selvaggio: Utah (75-1 at CG Technology; 60-1 at Westgate)
No. And while the level of competition in the Colonial (the 19th-rated conference, according to Sagarin) wasn’t all that stiff, Notre Dame isn’t known for its defensive prowess (1.07 points per possession allowed vs. Austin +6
Tuley: Everyone loves picking No. But I’m going contrarian here. SMU held opponents to fewer than 60 points per game this season — ranked in the top 20 in the nation. Arizona
Harvard plus-8.5 vs. Kentucky
4. However, the one thing in Butler’s favor is its ability to win the battle on the boards. O’Brien. This team is 312th in the nation in assists and its top rebounder is 6-6 Sam Rowley. Whatever the reason, our historical archive reveals a distinct change in public betting behavior.
o picks for every NCAA tourney game on Thursday and Friday
o ATS records for every tourney team
o the best 2015 NCAA title value bets
o Vegas handicappers’ best ATS bets, upset picks and over/under bets
o the best system bets from David Solar of Sports Insights
o the best and worst coaches in the tourney to bet on
o the top 10 public teams according to Jay Kornegay of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook
Westgate line: Michigan St. Seven-footer Frank Kaminsky, 6-7 Nigel Hayes and 6-8 Sam Dekker are a handful for any frontcourt and will overmatch Coastal Carolina, whose top rebounder is 6-7 Badou Diagne. No. No. Unfortunately, this system would also include teams that were an underdog during their last conference tournament game. SDSU’s inside game and stubborn defense (the Aztecs allow just 53.1 points per game, ranked second in the nation) should get the job done.
Tuley: Well, this region is looking rather chalky so far, but I believe that ends here (though I do have some trepidation as Eastern Washington is becoming such a trendy pick).
ATS pick: VCU +2*
No. Anyway, the added rest should help Gaines and put Georgia as a live underdog.
ATS pick: TBD
Mark Few has had a lot of great players and teams at Gonzaga, but this may be his best. Coach Mike Brey is 11-3 hitting the under in NCAA tournament games at Notre Dame.
ATS pick: Wichita State -6
Lange: This is a classic case of overachiever (Butler) vs. Oregon
Oklahoma minus-12 vs. -1.5
West Regional . On offense, they are strong in free throw shooting (76 percent), which is always a plus when games are close. I say they caught a break by facing super-soft Indiana and a likely date against a reeling Kansas squad in the second round. 6 Butler Bulldogs vs. Albany got here by winning the America East, but didn’t step up in competition much. If he’s not fully back in form (and he didn’t look like it in 26 scoreless minutes in the ACC tourney, including a miss on the possible game winner against North Carolina), that opens the door more for the Bruins.
Westgate line: Kentucky -TBD
PickCenter consensus pick: TBD
One reason for this phenomenon may be that bettors are used to taking upsets in their brackets, making them more likely to gravitate toward the underdog. The higher the spreads go, the less convinced I am that the underdog will win outright, plus the more the books will shave off the true odds, so I won’t bet as much on the money line. +1*
No. While managing egos seems to be the largest challenge for NBA coaches, imparting fundamentals and turning five talented individuals into one cohesive unit are just two of the struggles facing college coaches. Against the spread, I’ll stick with a recommendation on the Lumberjacks plus the points, but I’m not sure I’ll play it myself, so I can’t make it a best bet.
ATS pick: Texas Southern +21.5*
ATS pick: TBD
No. 12 seeds against No. Big 12 opponents. Indiana
Maryland minus-4 vs. As an underdog under Steve Alford, the Bruins are 17-7 hitting the under.
ATS pick: Butler +1.5
Cincinnati plus-1 vs. Ohio St. However, I’ve seen this before where a team sneaks into the tournament and vindicates the selection committee (most notably VCU in 2011). It almost always yields a better payoff, plus it gives you the option along the way to pull out profits or to stop altogether if there’s a key injury or something.
No. No. No. Arizona
3. 8 Oregon Ducks vs.
No. 12 seed). That worked out well for me, but this year I’m hoping to be able to back Iowa State on a deeper run with Georges Niang & Co. No. 3 Iowa St. At the time of publication, OSU was receiving just 24 percent of spread bets.
No. But I don’t expect Arizona to rack up a ton of points and run up the score, either.
Westgate line: NC State -1
PickCenter consensus pick: 64 percent picked NC State
No. The Tigers have to be feeling the role of Cinderella, and I think they can stay within the huge number.
Andrew Lange: Bettors are faced with handicapping a dreaded “non-boarded” team here, as New Mexico State won the oddball WAC. The public has mostly bet against UCLA, as this line opened SMU minus-2 at several books and is up to 3.5 at most books and even 4 at a few as of late Monday night. -2
PickCenter consensus pick: 58 percent picked Ohio St. 1 Duke Blue Devils vs. Interesting side note in that for all the flack Barnes and the Longhorns have taken, they have an identical 17-13 ATS record as Butler. Coastal Carolina
Oklahoma St. 15 Texas Southern Tigers
UCLA averaged more than 80 points per game at home this season, but just 62.7 on the road — a difference of more than 18 points per game. Gonzaga 6-foot-10 freshman Domantas Sabonis (9.5 PPG, 7 RPG), 7-1 junior Przemek Karnowski (11 PPG) and 6-10 junior Kyle Wiltjer (16.7 PPG) anchor an NBA-like frontcourt, while senior guard Kevin Pangos (11.5 PPG, 5 APG) gets things moving. Sure, the Super Bowl may take a larger handle than any individual game, but the cumulative number of bets taken during March Madness dwarfs even the mighty beast known as the NFL playoffs.
Westgate line: Providence -TBD
PickCenter consensus pick:
Utah would be the only tourney future I see to hold a little bit of value. However, this puts Shaka Smart and his VCU program in the underdog role, where they’re more comfortable. Wisconsin is tops in the Big Ten in points allowed, second in free throws, second in field goal shooting and rebound margin. The Badgers are 42-20-1 ATS in nonconference games and 20-8-1 ATS in their past 29 neutral-site games. No. UC Irvine has twin towers in 7-6 Mamadou Ndiaye and 7-2 Ioannis Dimakopoulos, but Louisville still has the matchup’s two best players in Terry Rozier and Montrezl Harrell despite all the players the Cardinals have lost. Oregon leans too much on offense, as the Ducks were 10th in the Pac-12 in points allowed and ninth in rebounding defense this season. -1.5
PickCenter consensus pick: 65 percent picked San Diego St. And Mick Cronin’s absence won’t be as magnified with Purdue playing a nearly identical brand of basketball. The Cowboys come in off a bad offensive game against Oklahoma, but they are 6-1-1 ATS after scoring fewer than 50 points in their previous game. (Note: I am considering playing Georgia State plus-4.5 in the first half, though that still seems a little short.
Westgate line: North Carolina -8.5
PickCenter consensus pick: 68 percent picked North Carolina
Wunderdog: Gonzaga (18-1 at Westgate, bet down to 15-1)
Coaching is a huge part of any sport, but particularly in college basketball. No. The reason for this is if your team gets to the Final Four and you want to hedge, you’re gonna be paying a huge price to hedge with Kentucky on the money line.
Texas Southern plus-21.5 vs. The Wolfpack match up well with an LSU squad that is on a 6-4 SU run, bowing out fast in the SEC tourney (a 73-70 OT loss to Auburn as a 9-point favorite). You’re going to run into situations in the tournament where hot shooting beats good defense, but in this instance, I want my money on the far more complete basketball team. This team is 18-7-1 ATS after a loss, and 23-9-1 ATS on neutral courts. Purdue
West Virginia minus-4.5 vs. 2 Kansas Jayhawks vs. Kansas
10. The Red Storm will really miss suspended 6-10 shot-blocker Chris Obekpa. -12
PickCenter consensus pick: 54 percent picked Iowa St. However, I think what gives Belmont a chance to at least cover is that Virginia’s leading scorer, Justin Anderson, is coming back slowly from a broken finger and an appendectomy. 7 Iowa Hawkeyes vs. They also scored a favorable venue with Omaha and a short four-hour drive north from their campus.
The first would be that instead of betting the fixed-odd futures to win the title, bet the money line in the first game your team plays and roll over your winnings through all six games. 5 (and for good reason), but I think the oddsmakers had this right when they opened Northern Iowa as a 7.5-point favorite. The Terps aren’t built to win by big margins, but this price appears cheap. 11 Texas Longhorns
ATS pick: Oklahoma St. 2 seed Duke last year). Larry Krystkowiak is one of the best coaches in the game and will hold an advantage over most on the sidelines. 2 Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. No. NC State is also 31st in the nation in rebounds. Notre Dame can score, but both teams play solid defense, allowing points in the 60s. A lot of NCAA underdogs have used a stellar defense to pull upsets or cover spreads against more athletic teams. Oklahoma State has excellent balance with 6-7 senior Le’Bryan Nash (17 PPG, 5.4 RPG) and 6-8 senior Michael Cobbins up front, plus junior Phil Forte III (15 PGG). I don’t think Buffalo will be overwhelmed, as they held halftime leads on the road at Kentucky and Wisconsin, but West Virginia is an extremely hard team for which to prepare. Buffalo
Wisconsin minus-18 vs. 6 Providence Friars vs. The Sooners are also on a 10-3 SU run, and are 23rd in the nation in rebounds. Valparaiso
ATS pick: Notre Dame -12
ATS pick: TBD
Least profitable tournament coaches since 2005
Westgate line: Gonzaga -16.5
PickCenter consensus pick: 54 percent picked North Dakota St. 7 seed and Ohio State at No. Iowa has a big size advantage, but unless Davidson goes stone cold, I don’t see the Hawkeyes being able to use that enough (at 2 points at a time) to keep up with the Wildcats.
Wunderdog: NC State is on a nice 6-2 SU run coming into the Big Dance.
South | West | Midwest | East South Regional
Davidson plus-2 vs. However, it troubles me that this line is so short (years ago, this would be well into double digits) and I’m just afraid that in the end, Baylor will win out. It all looks so easy that I hope it’s not one of those things that are too good to be true.
Tuley: Georgia State is an interesting underdog as it plays well on the defensive end, holding 11 opponents under 30 percent shooting this season. 6 seed instead of a No. This isn’t your typical Valpo team, as the Crusaders play at a plodding pace and win with defense (0.94 points per possession allowed). 7 Wichita State Shockers vs. 10 Ohio State Buckeyes
Westgate line: San Diego St. 11 BYU/Ole Miss winner
Tuley: A lot of people are picking this game as this year’s mega-upset (like Mercer over No. The American has some weak teams, but I give the Bearcats small edges on both sides of the ball. 12 Buffalo Bulls
VCU plus-2 vs. Austin is justifiably getting a lot of support as a live underdog, as it upset VCU last year in this round and a lot of people remember that and are looking for a repeat. No. In the end this is a very even matchup, but I think the Bearcats are still the play, even being bet to favoritism.
UCLA/SMU: under 134
No. No. When dealing with mid-major teams, I’m hesitant to put much stock into nonconference play as a vast majority of games against power conference foes are played on the road. 9 St